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Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2012, Vol 12, Num, 5     (Pages: 523-531)

Analysis of Extreme Marine Events Causing Flooding in Varna Region

Panagiota Galiatsatou 1 ,Panayotis Prinos 1 ,Nikolay Valchev 2 ,Ekaterina Trifonova 2

1 Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Hydraulics Laboratory, Department of Civil Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
2 Institute of Oceanology, BAS, Varna, Bulgaria
DOI : 10.4194/1303-2712-v12_2_44 Viewed : 3994 - Downloaded : 2992 In the present paper extreme wave height, wave period and storm surge events in the marine area of the Varna region are analyzed using Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate return levels of the aforementioned variables corresponding to selected return periods. Both univariate and multivariate techniques are utilized. The GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) distribution is implemented to extrapolate the marine variables to levels more extreme than those observed. Joint probability analysis is also conducted. A bivariate extreme value model is used to produce estimates of joint probabilities of extreme wave heights and storm surges. For wave period extremes, a conditional distribution on extreme wave height is utilized. Joint estimates of wave height, storm surge and wave period are compared to the respective estimates of the univariate analysis, for selected return periods. Keywords : EVT, GEV, univariate extremes, bivariate analysis, conditional distribution