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Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2001, Vol 1, Num, 1     (Pages: 67-74)

Modeling of Fish Disease Dynamics: A New Approach to an Old Problem

Hamdi Ögüt 1

1 Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Marine Sciences, Department of Fisheries, 61530 Çamburnu, Trabzon, Turkey Viewed : 2001 - Downloaded : 2301 In the past, the focus of fish disease research was on various aspects of fish pathogens (biochemical, serological, virulence etc.) rather than the disease itself. Therefore, vast amounts of data are available on the responses of these pathogens to environmental and host related factors. Modeling of these accumulated data could be employed to understand the relative importance of the factors influencing the spread of disease. In particular, the data obtained from intensive aquaculture systems could be robust in applying modeling due to fewer assumptions involved. Each animal in a pond situation is exposed to the same conditions. Therefore, the chance of coming into contact with an infectious agent or animal is the same for each individual sharing the same pond. Thus, nonlinear relationships between various factors effecting disease outcome can be evaluated more efficiently, and realistic predictions can be obtained.

In this paper, it was intended to review knowledge on basic modeling concepts of fish disease dynamics. Accomplishing this goal would provide insight into the relative importance of parameters playing a major role in disease outbreaks. Keywords : fish diseases, epizootiology, disease dynamics, dynamic modeling, epidemiology